The team at Pantera Capital have forecasted that Bitcoin could rise to as high as $36k before its halving event in April 2024 and $149k after.
Bitcoin’s Halving Using the Stock-To-Flow Projection
Regarding the methodology used to come up with such a future forecast for Bitcoin, the Pantera Capital Team cited the popular stock-to-flow model created by PlanB. They added that each halving has drastically reduced the new supply of Bitcoin, and the next one will significantly impact its price. They explained:
The framework we’ve used for analyzing the impact of halvings is to study the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. The first halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 17% of the total outstanding bitcoins. That’s a huge impact on new supply and it had a huge impact on price.
Bitcoin Could Bottom in December 2022
According to their analysis, the next Bitcoin halving should occur around April 20, 2024. When this happens, mining rewards will decrease from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
Therefore, if history were used to measure what would happen, ‘the price of bitcoin would trough December 30, 2022. We would then see a rally into early 2024 and then a strong rally after the actual halving. The following chart shows what might happen if Bitcoin repeats the performance around previous halvings.’
Consequently, ‘the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $36k before the halving and $149k after.’
The team provided the following chart visualizing their analysis and forecast of Bitcoin.
FTX Situation Has Not Affected Pantera Capital
Also worth mentioning is that the team at Pantera Capital also confirmed that the company was not directly affected by the collapse of FTX or its bankruptcy. They explained that their general approach during such situations was to safeguard their portfolio as much as possible and mitigate the risk of permanent capital loss due to the bear market.
They explained:
© Solana Daily Brief, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only. It is not to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.Our approach is to aim to have little exposure to centralized counterparties in general while maintaining some flexibility to trade. Our main risk/losses from the FTX event come from our Blockfolio acquisition proceeds, which were denominated in FTT and FTX stock.
We liquidated as much of this FTT as possible on Tuesday, November 8th. Prior to the collapse, on Monday night, our FTX equity and FTT token positions totaled under 3% of our total firm AUM.